Silver Conservative Portfolio

Portfolio dynamics in 2019

2019-1	2019-1
2019-3	2019-4

Portfolio composition

American stocks

Apple

Apple is an American corporation that manufactures personal and tablet computers, audio players, phones, and software. One of the pioneers in the field of personal computers and modern multi-tasking operating systems with a graphical interface. Headquartered in Cupertino, California. Through innovative technology and aesthetic designs, Apple has built a cult following in the consumer electronics industry. It is the first American company whose capitalization exceeded USD 1.044 trillion. This happened during the trading of the company's shares on September 10, 2018. A strong brand, high consumer product quality and a huge loyal audience allow Apple to demonstrate consistently strong financial performance. At the same time, the results of the third financial quarter turned out to be strong, which was the height of the "coronacrisis". Apple benefits from a strong balance sheet and the ability to generate high cash flows, which allows the company to devote substantial funds to share buybacks and dividends. Apple regularly introduces updated versions of its products, invests heavily in promising technologies, and is engaged in geographic expansion. At the same time, the Apple services segment is gradually coming to the fore as a growth driver for the company. Last year, the company unveiled a number of new services that should help it more effectively monetize its large audience. The company plans to reduce its significant net cash position to zero, which allows for further increases in payments to shareholders and / or increased activity in the M&A market. We have a BUY recommendation for Apple shares with a medium-term target of $ 470.

Technical picture of APPL, W1:

Amazon

Amazon.com, Inc. Is an American company, the largest in the world in terms of turnover among those selling goods and services via the Internet and one of the first Internet services focused on selling real consumer goods. It is headquartered in Seattle, Washington. The world's largest online retailer Amazon.com has released financial results for the second quarter, according to which earnings reached $ 5.2 billion or $ 10.3 per share versus $ 5.22 per share in the same period last year, exceeding the average analyst forecast of $ 1 .48 per share. Sales in the reporting period increased by 40% and were at $ 88.9 billion against $ 63.4 billion recorded a year earlier, while analysts on average expected $ 81.45 billion. It is worth noting that online sales in the second quarter increased by 48 % y / y and amounted to $ 45.9 billion, and the revenue of the Amazon Web Services (AWS) division grew by almost 29% y / y and reached $ 10.81 billion. According to the company, revenue in the third quarter could reach $ 87-93 billion with operating profit in the range of $ 2-5 billion, taking into account possible costs of $ 2 billion associated with COVID-19. Over time, Amazon stock can be worth up to $ 5,000 per share, based on what we call the "Amazon hidden value multiplier." One is the TAM (Common Addressable Market) expansion multiplier, based on "AMZN's track record of TAM expansion solutions that broaden its growth band, increase profitability and reduce shareholder risk by diversifying its revenue stream." This is due to Amazon's ability to add 'huge' new markets or 'investment areas' that could not have been seen 3-5 years prior to investment. ”We estimate that today's share price includes 10% asset growth at 10% ROIC (Return on Invested Capital - return on equity). Keeping ROIC constant, our analytical work finds that if AMZN grows its asset base by at least 20%, its economic profit and share price should double to $ 5,000 per share.

Technical picture AMZN, W1:

Google

Google is an American multinational public corporation reorganized on October 2, 2015 into the international conglomerate Alphabet Inc., a company within the Alphabet holding that invests in Internet search, cloud computing and advertising technologies. Google maintains and develops a range of Internet services and products and generates revenue primarily from advertising through its AdWords program. The internet giant's business model relies heavily on the advertising budgets of small businesses, including travel and hospitality companies. These sectors will continue to suffer from the pandemic for the foreseeable future, and this year may be one of the most challenging for Google in terms of sales. The company typically does not publish its own forecasts, but CFO Ruth Porat confirmed in April that the second quarter will “be challenging” for the company's advertising division. One of the factors that can offset the current weakness to some extent is the company's success in the cloud computing market. Despite the pandemic, revenue in this segment for the first quarter jumped 52% or almost 1.5 times (to $ 3.01 billion) Google's impressive cash cushion, willingness to continue to buy back shares, and the strength of the cloud division and the YouTube platform helped the company recover from the March recession. Since the beginning of the year, the shares are up more than 14%.

Technical picture of GOOG, W1:

American Express Company

American Express is an American diversified financial sector company, the fourth largest payment system in the world. Specializes in financial services in the field of travel and tourism, issues credit and payment cards, travelers checks. American Express approached the crisis with a strong position in terms of capital adequacy and liquidity. The company has transferred employees to remote work, has adopted a number of programs to financially support clients in the consumer sector and in the segment of small businesses. We expect the company to overcome the current crisis with reasonable losses, retaining its staff and customer base, and be able to show a quick recovery from the victory over the coronavirus. American Express shares look inexpensive in terms of financial multiples, they look good in terms of technical analysis. We view American Express as still attractive after a strong decline earlier this year and recommend it as a Buy with a medium-term target of $ 110.

Technical picture AXP, W1:

Pfizer

It is noteworthy that, despite the coronavirus pandemic, Pfizer raised its forecasts for the current year - for net earnings per share from $ 2.82-292 to $ 2.85-2.95, and for revenue - from $ 48.5-50. 5 billion to $ 48.6-50.6 billion. Pfizer shares are among our recommendations with a "Buy" rating as a conservative long-term investment. Over the past month, in particular, the paper brought a yield of 11.5%. Pfizer's Q2 earnings were in line with our optimistic expectations despite the scale of the impact of the pandemic on the US economy. The COVID-19 situation had a minimal negative impact on the pharmaceutical giant's business - the net negative effect of the pandemic on the company's revenue in the second quarter was only $ 500 million or 4% and was mainly due to the refusal of Americans from routine medical examinations by pediatricians and therapists and a decrease in demand for certain types products in China. We highly appreciate Pfizer's resilience to the crisis in an unprecedented environment and believe that the stability of the company's financial results will be appreciated by investors as well, therefore we have no reason to cancel our “Buy” recommendation for Pfizer shares and set the target price for revision.

PFE technical picture, W1:

Hedging assets

Precious metals are traditionally sought-after assets in times of heightened economic and political uncertainty. This year, the coronavirus pandemic and its dire economic consequences are forcing players to think about alternatives to investing in stocks. The Fed and other central banks are pursuing ultra-soft monetary policies, with the US government debt at an all-time high of over $ 26 trillion. During the years of Obama's presidency, the country's debt almost doubled, but under Trump, the US government's debt continued to grow, and given the need for large-scale stimulus measures due to the coronavirus epidemic, the situation with the national debt will only worsen in the foreseeable future. In light of this investment in precious metals is more interesting than ever.

Gold (XAU / USD)

The stock market rally from its March lows has become one of the most powerful in history, but in fact the shares are trading at about the level of the beginning of the year. At the same time, gold rose by as much as 30%, and is not going to stop there. The yellow metal usually strengthens amid low interest rates, exacerbating inflationary risks. Gold is also the oldest known defense against heightened uncertainty, which explains the demand for it in the midst of the worst pandemic ever faced. On August 7, gold set a new absolute record of all times and peoples, significantly exceeding the 2011 highs: 2072 US dollars per troy ounce against 1920. After that, a downward correction began naturally, caused by profit taking on previously opened long positions (longs). The trigger that launched the correction was the data on the US labor market published that day, which turned out to be better than the consensus forecast. Under the influence of the news background, the DXY dollar index corrected up from the local lows at 92.479 to about 93.700. But by now, the recovery in the US dollar appears to be fizzling out. Consequently, with a high probability, in the near future we will see the end of the downward correction for gold and a set of new positions to buy it. A new attempt by the precious metal to renew the tops is almost inevitable: the old fundamental factors that previously caused the rise in gold prices have not gone away. Moreover, new ones were added to them.

Technical picture Gold, W1:

Silver (XAG / USD)

Should institutional investors begin to abandon Gold in search of alternative opportunities that can provide a higher return on investment, the ratio of silver to gold prices will continue to shift in favor of the "white" metal. In addition to fundamental factors, the growth of industrial demand for this metal used in the automotive industry will play in favor of the rise in silver prices in the long term - electric and hybrid engines are produced using silver, and silver is an integral element in solar energy - it is used in photovoltaic cells ... We have every reason to maintain our “Buy” recommendation for Silver, and set the target level to be revised upward.

Technical picture Silver, W1: